- Matt Hougan says investors should focus less on identifying Bitcoin’s exact bottom and more on the broader outlook shared by major research firms.
- Galaxy Digital, NYDIG and Standard Chartered disagree on whether BTC has already bottomed, with estimates ranging from roughly US$43,000 to US$59,000.
- Despite differing short-term views, all three firms expect Bitcoin to recover and enter another bull market.
Bitcoin investors may be focusing on the wrong question when trying to determine whether the market has already reached its cycle bottom, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan. While leading crypto research firms disagree on where the low will ultimately land, Hougan argues that their shared outlook is more important than their differences.
In a recent analysis, Hougan compared reports from Galaxy Digital, NYDIG and Standard Chartered, each of which reached a different conclusion on the state of the market. Galaxy concluded that Bitcoin has likely not yet bottomed, NYDIG said the evidence remains mixed, and Standard Chartered argued that the low is already in place.
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Competing Views on Bitcoin’s Next Move
Galaxy’s research suggests further downside may be possible. After reviewing historical market cycles and a range of valuation, sentiment and miner-related indicators, the firm found that only four of 13 signals associated with previous bottoms have been fully met. Its analysis points to a potential bottom between US$30,000 and US$54,000 (AU$42,600 and AU$76,680), with a base-case range of US$40,000 to US$46,000 (AU$56,800 to AU$65,320).
NYDIG reached a less definitive conclusion, noting that Bitcoin’s correction displays many characteristics of a cyclical low while showing fewer signs of the capitulation that has historically accompanied major bottoms. The firm added that growing institutional demand may be altering Bitcoin’s traditional market cycle, meaning the low could already be in place despite the absence of some historical signals.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick said Bitcoin likely established its cycle low at US$59,000 (AU$83,780). The bank, which previously forecast a decline towards US$50,000 (AU$71,000), now expects Bitcoin to climb to US$100,000 (AU$142,000) by the end of the year.
Despite the differing forecasts, Hougan highlighted three areas of agreement. All three research teams believe Bitcoin is closer to a bottom than a top, all expect the market low to occur this year, and all anticipate another bull cycle ahead.
For long-term investors, Hougan argued that these shared conclusions matter more than identifying the exact price at which Bitcoin bottoms. Whether the market ultimately finds support around US$43,000 (AU$61,060), US$50,000 (AU$71,000) or US$59,000 (AU$83,780), he suggested the more important question is how high Bitcoin could rise in the next phase of the cycle.
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