- Markus Thielen estimated that roughly US$15 trillion (AU$21.15 trillion) in fresh capital would be required to lift Bitcoin to US$1 million (AU$1.41 million) a coin by 2030.
- He described that sum as about a quarter of the value of the US stock market, and the target as “mathematically impossible”.
Bitcoin reaching US$1 million (AU$1.41 million) a coin by 2030 would take roughly US$15 trillion (AU$21.15 trillion) in new capital, a sum 10x Research founder Markus Thielen called “mathematically impossible” in remarks published on 15 August.
In an interview with Cointelegraph, Thielen put the required inflow at about a quarter of the value of the entire US stock market, arriving over four years. “It’s 15x, I think, from here,” he said of the move to seven figures.
It takes trillions and trillions of dollars to move the price really materially higher, and that’s why we are not as bullish as those arguments which we think are totally mathematically unrealistic.
Markus Thielen, 10x Research founder Bitcoin traded at US$62,773 (AU$88,510) on 17 August with a market capitalisation of about US$1.26 trillion (AU$1.78 trillion), according to CoinGecko. Its record remains US$126,080 (AU$177,773), set on 6 October 2025. About 20.07 million of the 21 million coins that will ever exist are already in circulation.
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“If we go back to, let’s say, $100K, that would already be, I think, a big, big achievement,” Thielen said.
Buyers hesitate at the per-coin price, he said, asking themselves “should I really work a whole year for just one Bitcoin?” He said satoshis “doesn’t really sound as interesting as Bitcoin”.
Thielen founded 10x Research in Singapore in November 2023, after running quantitative and derivatives strategy at Morgan Stanley in Asia and macro portfolios at JP Morgan’s chief investment office and Millennium Capital Partners.
The firm sells research to hedge funds, asset managers and trading desks, and its site credits him with a July 2023 call for a US$125,000 (AU$176,250) cycle top. Bitcoin cleared that level in October 2025.
In March 2025, with traders debating whether to buy the dip, he said a structural decline in the market indicated a weakening foundation and made it a time for caution.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong put the same target on the record on 24 September 2025. “I think Bitcoin could reach $1M by ~2030 based on current conditions and progress,” he wrote. “Think long-term.”
VanEck’s Matthew Sigel went further in May, calling US$1 million (AU$1.41 million) within five years the firm’s base case. Bitcoin traded near US$81,000 (AU$114,210) at the time.
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